第20回中国共産党大会後の経済政策 : 債務問題への対処、産業育成策から見える輪郭

Abstract

A year has passed since the Communist Party of China's Xi Jinping administration entered its third term. With nearly all of the senior officials close to himself, it was expected that his policy management should have reflected his intentions with regard to domestic affairs. The lifting of the "zero-corona policy" in December 2022, after the party congress, which had called for strict movement restrictions and quarantine, also contributed to the view that the economy would be supported in 2023. However, despite expectations that the Chinese economy would lead the world, various challenges have emerged since mid-2023. The management of real estate developers such as Evergrande Group and Country Garden Holdings has become more serious due to massive debt and falling land prices, and IT giants such as Alibaba have not regained the momentum they had in their heyday. Concerns about declining birthrates continue to deepen. On the other hand, several industries are making progress in their efforts to strengthen international competitiveness and internalization. In the automotive industry, exports may surpass those of Japan and Germany to become the world's largest by 2023. Despite concerns about subsidies for electric vehicles and the export boost provided by Tesla's Chinese-produced vehicles, the fact remains that competitiveness is stronger than ever. Semiconductors, too, are continuing their attempts at internal production through trial and error. With the prolonged confrontation with the U.S. in mind, China appears to be trying to increase its "self-sufficiency" in a wide range of industries, or to increase supplies from close countries. This paper reviews the structural and cyclical factors surrounding the Chinese economy over the past year with episodes and, examines the characteristics of the Xi administration's economic policies.